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Monday, March 9, 2009

Relax, Friday Was A Sign of Indecision: Not Yet a Bottom

Volume in general is increasing, but there was nothing special about Friday. No panic. Therefore, no capitulation.

In the last 30 minutes of Friday's trading a violent short squeeze was unleashed. The market had hit new lows and the squeeze started as the S&P 500 (ES) MAR 09 futures contract hit 666 for the second time that day and failed to push lower.

Friday's daily candle is a "Doji". This is a sign of indecision. This is NOT a sign of a bottom. So don't get all excited. The trend is still down. Wait for a break.

To put things in perspective, on Thursday the same ramp job was attempted into the close. It failed miserably the next day. The day before that, on Wednesday an actual rally was attempted. That too fizzled quickly.

Obviously the market is massively oversold. But this could go on for quite some time...

I think they've got it correct over at Cobra's Market View. A follow through day today is required before anybody can call a counter trend rally.

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